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  • Chuck Martin will be fired at the end of this season

    Chuck's contract is available here for anyone that wants to follow along: http://miamioh.edu/_files/documents/athletics/public-records/ica-2018/chuck-martin-new-multi-year-contract.pdf

    Apologies as this is not the most succinct or well-written piece of contract analysis I've ever done. But I wanted to get it on the board for everyone to look at for themselves.

    Also, keep in mind that, while I understand a coach can be fired at any time of year for a myriad of reasons, I'm working under the assumption that Chuck would likely not be fired until the latter stages, if not the end, of a season and, if he is to be fired, it is for performance based reasons.

    Here are the key points of the contract to understand:
    1) The contract runs from February 1, 2018 through January 31, 2021 (3 Contract Years)
    2) Martin is guaranteed compensation of $522,300 for every Contract Year 
    3) Martin's buyout is $522,300, regardless of when he is fired, and it payable in installments through the end of the contract. Further, the buyout is mitigated by other related employment during that time.

    Considering the above, Chuck Martin will be fired at the end of this season. This is a statement of fact more so than an opinion, based on the way this contract was drafted. Obviously, if Chuck runs the table and wins the MAC, he'll have saved his job. But, barring anything short of that, Miami can't afford to keep Chuck Martin. Here's why:

    One interesting thing about the term of the Agreement and the definitions in the contract is that each Contract Year begins on February 1, which falls not long after the season and not long after the decision to retain or fire a coach for the following season (at least for performance based reasons) is made. That is to say that, for every season Chuck is retained, he will have been paid out 2/3 of his salary before opening kickoff of the year. For all intents and purposes, once Chuck is retained for a season the entirety of the $522,300 is guaranteed. For purposes of this discussion, we can assume Chuck's salary in Y1 of 3 is guaranteed to him as the vast majority of it has already been paid out. If Chuck is retained after this season, he will be guaranteed practically all of his Y2 salary before the next time his job performance will be up for review. I assume this is the way all coaching contracts are drafted but, it would have been interesting if, when given his extension, the term didn't begin until much later in the year and didn't end until much closer to the start of the 2021 season.

    Now, recall that Chuck's buyout is the equivalent of one year's salary and is payable throughout the remainder of the term. Therefore, once Chuck is retained for 2019 (and thereby guaranteeing his Y2 salary), he will have essentially been guaranteed all the compensation under the contract because he'd either i) be retained for 2020 and therefore paid his Y3 salary, or ii) be fired at the end of 2019 and be paid his buyout on essentially the same schedule that the Y3 compensation would have been paid.

    Contrast the above with what would happen if Chuck is fired at the end of 2018. First, Chuck's $522,300 buyout would be payable in installments over two years instead of one. Ostensibly, this is crucial from Miami's perspective to lessen the annual budgetary hit. Second, it would create a far greater incentive for Chuck to mitigate Miami's obligations because Chuck's annual salary would essentially be cut in half for the next two years (to say nothing of the loss of benefits, incentive pay, and additional value points of this current contract). Firing Chuck at the end of this season would also give Chuck more time to find employment to mitigate the buyout (a coach may be apt to take one year off after getting fired, but likely not two). And, finally, on the same point, it would allow the buyout to be mitigated by the potential of two years of salary at a new employer versus one (if Chuck immediately finds a 250K/year OC job, our obligation to him is basically nonexistent).

    To summarize all of the above: Chuck Martin is essentially guaranteed an additional 1mm+ from Miami if he is retained for next season. That amount is cut at least in half, and perhaps entirely, by firing him after this year.

    There is one alternative, which is to commit to at least two more years of Chuck Martin following this year. Even if we salvage a 7-5 or 6-6 record and are invited to a bowl game, I don't see how this is a tenable solution. We are a senior laden team that is ostensibly going to have a lot of growing pains as new players are worked into action next year. By retaining Chuck, even in the event Miami does happen its way into a postseason game, there would be the real possibility of going under .500 next year and being forced to choose between i) retaining Chuck for 2020 or ii) committing over a million dollars to heading coaching salaries in 2020 because we would be on the hook for Chuck's entire buyout during that season. 

    I have no doubt that this extension was drafted with an eye towards firing Chuck Martin after the 2018 season and was probably put before Chuck at a time he had no great leverage -- coming off a 5-7 season and heading into a lame duck contract year. Absent a MAC championship run in the next several weeks, Chuck's fate has been sealed. I sincerely hope that, with that in mind, Sayler has begun the process of identifying the ideal candidate to take over this program in 2019, who can capitalize on the athletic department's commitment to the football team and bring the expectation of winning back to Oxford.
    dave67Love_and_HonorBash_Riprockskin66agcQuinoaburgerTruckCrewRenmancoMooreHawkaba222and 6 others.
  • If you're satisfied with the progress, you're lying to yourself

    Think back to the day Chuck Martin was hired.  The recitation of his D2 coaching statistics.  The promises of bigger, faster, stronger, and smarter football.  All the listed deficiencies of the previous regime and the fixes that would be put into place.  Sayler putting coaches on notice that he likes winning.  Martin telling national publications that he would be "selling a good ass kicking."

    Well, here we sit at 5-24 through 29 games.  Almost midway through year 3, we are 0-5.  

    We have beaten UMass twice, EMU once, Kent St. once, and FCS opponent (Presbyterian).  Actually, we are 1-2 vs. FCS opponents, despite all 3 being home games. None of our FBS wins came vs. anyone that wasn't an utter cupcake.  In fact, the if you combine final records of UMass '14, Kent '14, EMU '15, and UMass '15 you get 9-38.  Presbyterian, our other win, finished 2-9 last season vs. a mostly FCS schedule.  

    We are 0-6 vs UC and OU.  Hilariously (or tear inducing, depending on your perspective), Don Treadwell's final win as Miami coach came vs a nationally ranked OU team.

    We all knew there was going to be a rebuilding process. But no one who was even the least bit optimistic about Martin when he was hired thought that at this point we would still be devoid of even one mildly respectable win. How can we keep talking about progress or optimism for the future when we have absolutely nothing tangible to hold on to?  

    Other than talk an A+ game, has Chuck done anything to have kept your trust in his ability to win at Miami? Are you satisfied with his assistants? Discipline of the team? You certainly aren't satisfied with the W/L record. We're not even playing an entertaining brand of football; today's game was as ugly and boring as it gets.  So, other than blind optimism -- which, as all fans, we have a fair share of -- what is the reason to be excited about this regime?  Even David Sayler tweets about volleyball at about 3x the rate he does about football at this point.
    NickskinKoheenLove_and_HonorMacCrackengentbaseball12AORedHawk33MiamiMACbmust71aba222dave67and 1 other.
  • WM line

    I think I'll probably make the trip. Kalamazoo is only an hour drive or so from my home. Can't say that I'm looking forward to it though. I'm thinking of it more as an obligation than anything.
    That's exactly why I'm still going to UMass.  This is the life I chose to lead.
  • GPA

    Kudos to Miami football and men's basketball for finding ways to underperform out of season, too.
  • Special Teams Coach

    muredhawks.com shows Palcic for punt team, Brechin for Returns (KO, P, or both?), and Woolfork for kickoff. Not sure where Field Goal kick or block fits in this.
    Luckily FGs and XPs had absolutely no bearing on the success of our last season.

    I also still view Miami as a Public Ivy. But the perception has changed in many (most?) high schools (at least here in SW Ohio). This discussion frequently came up the last 6 years (Our daughter graduated college two years ago and our son is a Senior in college).

    Posting this without actually uttering the words "Ohio State" must have been tough for you, so, congrats!
    thechuck_2112AORedHawk33skinsredbear18Quinoaburgerhawkattack06Bash_RiprockDICKEDDIEredhawk11and 1 other.
  • 7 Str8 Postseason Losses

    I’m a ref

    Everything makes sense now.

    That's how El13 knew that John Cooper was THE MAN FOR THE JOB.

    Why are you beating on me? I didn’t pick Cooper, I support the team regardless of the coach. I was actually excited about speeding up the play, but the coaching never worked under Cooper. Don’t make me go Biden on you!
    It's nothing personal. It's just that, on this board, sometimes people say things that are so incredible they must be remembered until the end of time, lest a piece of our history is lost. So, while it may feel like beating up on the poster, it is really keeping the history of the great institution known as MiamiHawkTalk (or more recently, test.miamihawktalk.com/talk/) alive.

    So, when you, El13 (which turned out to be a perfect nickname for Coop until he fell short of his own, dogshit expectations) said in the year of our lord two thousand seventeen that John Cooper was "the man for the job," despite the four seasons of results to the contrary already submitted as evidence, you immediately became a part of MHT (or t.MHT.com/t/) lore. I'm just doing my part in keeping the lore alive.

    No different than:

    • "Firing Treadwell in the middle of the season is laughable and a nonstarter." -Bash Riprock
    • "Armand Robinson is the next Hines Ward" -Bluesman (also, I can't verify but I'm guessing at one point or another he described Alex Moosmann and Kramer Soderberg as "better than Michael Jordan, Pete Maravich and Oscar Robertson...combined.")
    ...and, of course, the comment so beautiful, so wonderfully crafted, that the poster had to change his name to avoid association with it:
    • "The Cavaliers are idiots if they take Kyrie Irving with the #1 pick instead of Shelvin Mack." - CookieMonster/Professor Fate

    AORedHawk33Bash_RiprockJiveHawkMooreHawkThe_SackmanQuinoaburgerhawkattack06mrgredhawkLove_and_Honorredhawk11and 1 other.
  • Ohio University must be destroyed

    It feels like nitpicking up 21, but that was passivism writ large to end the half.
  • Alex has the best meat

    Spent a lot of time tonight thinking about the tailgate for the Army game come October. Lots of ideas percolating. The game is driving distance from me, so you can count on the Joule making an appearance and some very, very tender meat.
  • Injuries

    What was our record with Gardner and Junior?