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How likely is a bowl bid?

NescacdadNescacdad Wealthy Alum
edited October 2019 in Football
Unless we win the MACC we’re not guaranteed a bowl bid. The bowls have their choice of 5 or 6 MAC teams with at least 6 wins. They can choose any for whatever reasons they apply and leave others at home for other reasons.

Because P5 conferences have started scheduling more deliberately, more are going to guarantee they have 6 or even 7 wins these days. Many middle of the pack and even better P5s seem to be scheduling an FCS, a Conference USA or Sun Belt and either one or two MAC teams and/or a weaker independent like UMass, Liberty or New Mexico State. Most who follow this pattern have 4-0 or 3-1 records going into their conference slates. Than means 2-3 wins in the B1G gets them at least the Fosters Banana Pudding Bowl.

Accordingly I think there will be fewer P5 teams from this season forward that don’t meet the minimum 6 win threshold. That will pretty much dry up the options formerly available to 6-6 or even 7-5 MAC teams to fill berths that P5 conferences didn’t have enough eligible teams to fill.

There are 82 bowl slots this season. As of today, 30 teams have either 5 or 6 wins. Another 28 have four wins and 32 have three. That is a total of 90 teams that are just three wins or less from minimum bowl eligibility for 82 bids.

We are sitting on two wins - one of them our biennial FCS trophy.

As was the case last year, I am ruling out a bid for us at 6-6. Our fan support is even worse than last season (ARMY OT game on national TV helped a little in ‘18). And our worst in our modern history loss at OSU this season is a major eyesore. That means we will need to go 5-2 the rest of the regular season even for consideration

We play Kent (always a trap road trip), Ohio and Ball State (averaged a 10.5 point spread in two P5 losses this season) on the road.

As a Miami fan, I will be very hesitant about making any bowl plans this season. And I think 7-5 is the bar for a Martin-led Miami in 2020.
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Comments

  • redhawk11redhawk11 Wealthy Alum
    Idk if i would consider Kent a trap game when they're in first place and we have 2 wins.
    NescacdadMacCracken
  • NescacdadNescacdad Wealthy Alum
    edited October 2019
    redhawk11 said:

    Idk if i would consider Kent a trap game when they're in first place and we have 2 wins.

    My point is that even when we’re considered better than they are it can be a struggle for us in Dix. I don’t really know if we’re better than anybody but Akron right now..

  • rexjack53rexjack53 Wealthy Alum
    7-5 WILL get a bowl invite
  • skin66skin66 Wealthy Alum
    7-5 will get us a bowl bid. 7-5 is very unlikely. 6-6 may be our ceiling for now as sad as that may be.
  • 19goSkins19goSkins Senior Barfly
    Nescacdad said:



    As a Miami fan, I will be very hesitant about making any bowl plans this season. And I think 7-5 is the bar for a Martin-led Miami in 2020.

    As a Miami fan, I’ve been hesitant to make bowl plans in the past decade!
    Nescacdad
  • Yager07KumlerYager07Kumler Senior Barfly
    I don’t get this line of thinking. Who cares about a bowl game when all it means, long term, is that “google my name” remains the head coach at Miami? I’ve stated before, the absolute worst thing that can happen to Miami is finish 5-7, 6-6, or 7-5 and Chuckles remains at Miami. Having stated that, I don’t even think he gets canned for going 3-9 (which is a possibility). Somehow, he has “job security” despite being an absolutely dreadful head coach for Miami (24-43, 21-21). I saw enough of his coaching ability on Sept. 16th, 2017 to realize Chuckles was a dud. I truly believe this program is not headed in the correct direction with him as head coach and would be better suited without his services. I do not believe sacrificing long-term potential for short-term success (bowl game) is appropriate. But what do I know, I’m just one of the idiots.
    GeneMHT_Meme_Teamgrumpy1MacCrackenDSnyder15
  • skinsskins Wealthy Alum
    edited October 2019
    He's being let go at the end of his contract no matter what....other than in the unlikely instances that he has a 9-X 10-X type season next year...then he might get hired somewhere...otherwise let go.


    This year the ceiling is 6-6, and likely worse....so there even could finally be donor, alum pressure to let him go....can't believe people are talking about bowl eligibility.
    Gene
  • DICKDICK Wealthy Alum
    Nescacdad said:

    Unless we win the MACC we’re not guaranteed a bowl bid. The bowls have their choice of 5 or 6 MAC teams with at least 6 wins. They can choose any for whatever reasons they apply and leave others at home for other reasons.

    Because P5 conferences have started scheduling more deliberately, more are going to guarantee they have 6 or even 7 wins these days. Many middle of the pack and even better P5s seem to be scheduling an FCS, a Conference USA or Sun Belt and either one or two MAC teams and/or a weaker independent like UMass, Liberty or New Mexico State. Most who follow this pattern have 4-0 or 3-1 records going into their conference slates. Than means 2-3 wins in the B1G gets them at least the Fosters Banana Pudding Bowl.

    Accordingly I think there will be fewer P5 teams from this season forward that don’t meet the minimum 6 win threshold. That will pretty much dry up the options formerly available to 6-6 or even 7-5 MAC teams to fill berths that P5 conferences didn’t have enough eligible teams to fill.

    There are 82 bowl slots this season. As of today, 30 teams have either 5 or 6 wins. Another 28 have four wins and 32 have three. That is a total of 90 teams that are just three wins or less from minimum bowl eligibility for 82 bids.

    We are sitting on two wins - one of them our biennial FCS trophy.

    As was the case last year, I am ruling out a bid for us at 6-6. Our fan support is even worse than last season (ARMY OT game on national TV helped a little in ‘18). And our worst in our modern history loss at OSU this season is a major eyesore. That means we will need to go 5-2 the rest of the regular season even for consideration

    We play Kent (always a trap road trip), Ohio and Ball State (averaged a 10.5 point spread in two P5 losses this season) on the road.

    As a Miami fan, I will be very hesitant about making any bowl plans this season. And I think 7-5 is the bar for a Martin-led Miami in 2020.

    We are 2-4, so we only have 6 games left.   We would have to go 5-1 the rest of the way to get to 7-5.
    Nescacdad
  • NescacdadNescacdad Wealthy Alum
    edited October 2019
    DICK said:

    Nescacdad said:

    Unless we win the MACC we’re not guaranteed a bowl bid. The bowls have their choice of 5 or 6 MAC teams with at least 6 wins. They can choose any for whatever reasons they apply and leave others at home for other reasons.

    Because P5 conferences have started scheduling more deliberately, more are going to guarantee they have 6 or even 7 wins these days. Many middle of the pack and even better P5s seem to be scheduling an FCS, a Conference USA or Sun Belt and either one or two MAC teams and/or a weaker independent like UMass, Liberty or New Mexico State. Most who follow this pattern have 4-0 or 3-1 records going into their conference slates. Than means 2-3 wins in the B1G gets them at least the Fosters Banana Pudding Bowl.

    Accordingly I think there will be fewer P5 teams from this season forward that don’t meet the minimum 6 win threshold. That will pretty much dry up the options formerly available to 6-6 or even 7-5 MAC teams to fill berths that P5 conferences didn’t have enough eligible teams to fill.

    There are 82 bowl slots this season. As of today, 30 teams have either 5 or 6 wins. Another 28 have four wins and 32 have three. That is a total of 90 teams that are just three wins or less from minimum bowl eligibility for 82 bids.

    We are sitting on two wins - one of them our biennial FCS trophy.

    As was the case last year, I am ruling out a bid for us at 6-6. Our fan support is even worse than last season (ARMY OT game on national TV helped a little in ‘18). And our worst in our modern history loss at OSU this season is a major eyesore. That means we will need to go 5-2 the rest of the regular season even for consideration

    We play Kent (always a trap road trip), Ohio and Ball State (averaged a 10.5 point spread in two P5 losses this season) on the road.

    As a Miami fan, I will be very hesitant about making any bowl plans this season. And I think 7-5 is the bar for a Martin-led Miami in 2020.

    We are 2-4, so we only have 6 games left.   We would have to go 5-1 the rest of the way to get to 7-5.

    Right. And I fear 1-5 is more likely than 5-1.

  • rexjack53rexjack53 Wealthy Alum
    1-5 Would get Chuck fired . NIU and Kent are both must wins 
    Nescacdad
  • NescacdadNescacdad Wealthy Alum
    CBS Sports predicts 7 MAC Bowl bids this week. Miami isn’t one of them but Buffalo is.
  • Cincykid3Cincykid3 Wealthy Alum
    A bowl is very unlikely for us...I see us finishing 4-2 at best for 6-6 record.
  • skinsskins Wealthy Alum
    Well Ohio goes to a BOWL about every year in the last 15....Miami maybe three times?

    Wow....never thought I'd be writing that....15 years later.
    Nescacdad
  • MacCrackenMacCracken Havighurstite
    rexjack53 said:

    1-5 Would get Chuck fired . NIU and Kent are both must wins 

    I can live with part 2, if it accomplishes part 1.
  • Re6H5wkRe6H5wk Wealthy Alum
    Not the point of this thread, but why is UMass an independent? I thought their plan was similar to UCF's: Use the MAC when transitioning from 1-AA/FCS as a stepping-stone to a bigger conference.
  • yanksalexyanksalex Wealthy Alum
    Re6H5wk said:

    Not the point of this thread, but why is UMass an independent? I thought their plan was similar to UCF's: Use the MAC when transitioning from 1-AA/FCS as a stepping-stone to a bigger conference.

    Someone get Kevin Warren on the phone and let him know UMass is available!
  • rexjack53rexjack53 Wealthy Alum
    Only 2 MAC games so far. Buffalo was picked 2nd or 3rd in the MAC East by almost everybody and WMU was picked 2nd in the West. If Miami losses the next 2 games I will be negative on this year.

    2-0 and there is a good chance at getting to 7 wins and a  bowl

    1-1 will leave little room for error. 

    Don't feel either NIU or Kent has better talent than Miami.
    DICKDSnyder15
  • grumpy1grumpy1 Wealthy Alum
    I would never root for a Miami team to lose but I also believe Chuck must go for the program to have any chance to escape this morass. I feel if we win and go to a bowl Chuck will stay and next year we will be having this discussion again.
    MacCracken
  • Re6H5wkRe6H5wk Wealthy Alum
    Many here keep saying 7-5 and a bowl would be a bad thing for Miami. Am I crazy, or is a bowl for a program like Miami ever anything but a good thing? So it keeps Chuck around. Hopefully we go 7-5 with a bowl again in 2020. What exactly are you hoping for? 10 win seasons and NY6 invites? In today's college football landscape, that's not realistic for a MAC program. Chuck may not be great, but if he goes, is there a hire out there who could elevate this program beyond 7-5 and a bowl?
    AORedHawk33redhawk11JCook32FootbalheadHawksGrad18DSnyder15RedHawks97
  • FWskinFWskin Summer Orientee
    7-5 would be an excellent season this year. We lost to possibly the best team in the country along with two other ranked teams--all on the road. Scheduling is an issue when you essentially have three losses before the season ever begins (but with attendance where it is I imagine we need all the guaranteed dollars we can get). The team closed very well last season. I am still optimistic we'll see the same thing again. I believe the talent is there.
  • Cincykid3Cincykid3 Wealthy Alum
    Re6H5wk: I don’t think it’s at all unrealistic to expect a few MAC titles every decade, do you? No one is saying we should be 10-2 every year or in a NY bowl, but given the overall weakness of the MAC there is no reason a good Head Coach cannot get us winning 8-9 games in good years and 7-5 in rebuilding years. A bowl appearance 3 out of every four years should be a forgone conclusion as well.
    RedHawks97
  • grumpy1grumpy1 Wealthy Alum
    So they close “very well” and finish 7-5 with a bowl bd. Chuck’s winning percentage will still be 36%. I’m constantly amazed how many of you are satisfied with that. Why are you willing to accept this level of mediocrity?
  • dave67dave67 Wealthy Alum
    Burning Man is over for this year.
  • Re6H5wkRe6H5wk Wealthy Alum
    Cincykid3 said:

    Re6H5wk: I don’t think it’s at all unrealistic to expect a few MAC titles every decade, do you? No one is saying we should be 10-2 every year or in a NY bowl, but given the overall weakness of the MAC there is no reason a good Head Coach cannot get us winning 8-9 games in good years and 7-5 in rebuilding years. A bowl appearance 3 out of every four years should be a forgone conclusion as well.

    With a schedule like this year, we could go 7-5 and win the MAC (8-5 if we win the MACC). If we don't schedule so many un-winnable games, then sure, 8-9 wins is possible. I just don't see why so many are dumping of 7-5 with a bowl game on national television, considering where this program has been the last 15 years.
    AORedHawk33DSnyder15
  • AORedHawk33AORedHawk33 Wealthy Alum
    Cincykid3 said:

    Re6H5wk: I don’t think it’s at all unrealistic to expect a few MAC titles every decade, do you? No one is saying we should be 10-2 every year or in a NY bowl, but given the overall weakness of the MAC there is no reason a good Head Coach cannot get us winning 8-9 games in good years and 7-5 in rebuilding years. A bowl appearance 3 out of every four years should be a forgone conclusion as well.

    You aren’t wrong, but Chuck getting us to 7-5 in a rebuilding year would be a great accomplishment. It’s still on the table.
    Re6H5wk
  • Cincykid3Cincykid3 Wealthy Alum
    I am OK with 7-5 this year given our OOC schedule.
  • Cincykid3Cincykid3 Wealthy Alum
    That said, last year’s 6-6 and the year’s prior 5-7 was not acceptable...at all.
    AORedHawk33Redsea
  • Cincykid3Cincykid3 Wealthy Alum
    I can live with the 7-5 type seasons if you can throw in an 8-9 win season every other year. With realistic OOC schedule and 2-2 start is it too much to expect 5-3 or 6-2 MAC records each year. I contend it is not.
  • 19goSkins19goSkins Senior Barfly
    DevilGrad said:

    Could you please leave that straw man alone? I’m afraid it may catch fire, and I’d like to use it elsewhere on the internet.

    Is the Straw Man related to The Running Man from the mid 90’s around campus? Dude was everywhere!
    mpurdy22
  • FootbalheadFootbalhead Havighurstite
    Re6H5wk said:

    Many here keep saying 7-5 and a bowl would be a bad thing for Miami. Am I crazy, or is a bowl for a program like Miami ever anything but a good thing? So it keeps Chuck around. Hopefully we go 7-5 with a bowl again in 2020. What exactly are you hoping for? 10 win seasons and NY6 invites? In today's college football landscape, that's not realistic for a MAC program. Chuck may not be great, but if he goes, is there a hire out there who could elevate this program beyond 7-5 and a bowl?

    You hit it on the head. So many negative people on this forum. It’s almost as if they expect them to go 12-0.
    Re6H5wkJCook32HawksGrad18DSnyder15
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