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2021 Reds Thread

24

Comments

  • The_RockThe_Rock Havighurstite
    I'm a bit of a Reds addict, and usually feel like I know more than the people in charge.  As far as coaching goes, I think the pitching coach (DJ and Boddy) have done amazing work.  I think the hitting coach has done admirably this year as well.   I think a lot of the blame should lie with Bell, but I honestly don't think he's the problem.  

    The underlying problem has been the management team.   The team waited too long to recognize the team was no longer competitive, and by the time they sold their assets, got pennies on the dollar for them.  Unlike teams that constantly retool, this led to a longer rebuild time since the farm system was barren.  Management then grew impatient, and tried to hurry along the rebuild by trading away a lot of their prospects for short term bandaids.  They basically wasted those prospects because they weren't competitive even with the short term fixes, and it left the minors more devoid of talent.  Then, this year finally came.  We got rid of some of the bad contracts, a few of the prospects advanced enough and we signed a few players, this should have been the year we became competitive.  Unfortunately, the team had a few major holes left to fill, but they had no high level prospects (other than the guys they absolutely need for the future, ala Greene and Lodolo) to trade to fill those holes, and they have no money left to spend.   That's left out of position players to gunk up the defense, and a predictably horrid bullpen.  

    So David Bell has made some mistakes, but the mistakes he made, in my opinion, are simply trying to cover up the deficiencies that management left with the team.  Compound that with some bad luck (Is Suarez still injured from last year?  Is Amir in the right head space?  Will Senzel ever be healthy?) and you get people without roles, you get bad defensive alignments and the like.

    As an aside, teams need to get talent wherever they can.  Amazingly, the Reds have probably been a net neutral in cheap talent acquisition during the rebuild.  They got lucky on Suarez, made a great deal in the Castillo trade, but also have given away Downs, Trammell and Gray.  They have no international presence other than winning bids for Cuban players.  The team won't be championship caliber until they fix these things.  Right now, as things are done, the team's ceiling is to sneak into the playoffs.  Firing David Bell won't fix that.
  • MowchMowch Senior Barfly
    edited June 3
    The_Rock said:

    I'm a bit of a Reds addict, and usually feel like I know more than the people in charge.  As far as coaching goes, I think the pitching coach (DJ and Boddy) have done amazing work.  I think the hitting coach has done admirably this year as well.   I think a lot of the blame should lie with Bell, but I honestly don't think he's the problem.  

    The underlying problem has been the management team.   The team waited too long to recognize the team was no longer competitive, and by the time they sold their assets, got pennies on the dollar for them.  Unlike teams that constantly retool, this led to a longer rebuild time since the farm system was barren.  Management then grew impatient, and tried to hurry along the rebuild by trading away a lot of their prospects for short term bandaids.  They basically wasted those prospects because they weren't competitive even with the short term fixes, and it left the minors more devoid of talent.  Then, this year finally came.  We got rid of some of the bad contracts, a few of the prospects advanced enough and we signed a few players, this should have been the year we became competitive.  Unfortunately, the team had a few major holes left to fill, but they had no high level prospects (other than the guys they absolutely need for the future, ala Greene and Lodolo) to trade to fill those holes, and they have no money left to spend.   That's left out of position players to gunk up the defense, and a predictably horrid bullpen.  

    So David Bell has made some mistakes, but the mistakes he made, in my opinion, are simply trying to cover up the deficiencies that management left with the team.  Compound that with some bad luck (Is Suarez still injured from last year?  Is Amir in the right head space?  Will Senzel ever be healthy?) and you get people without roles, you get bad defensive alignments and the like.

    As an aside, teams need to get talent wherever they can.  Amazingly, the Reds have probably been a net neutral in cheap talent acquisition during the rebuild.  They got lucky on Suarez, made a great deal in the Castillo trade, but also have given away Downs, Trammell and Gray.  They have no international presence other than winning bids for Cuban players.  The team won't be championship caliber until they fix these things.  Right now, as things are done, the team's ceiling is to sneak into the playoffs.  Firing David Bell won't fix that.

    Yeah, I'm not a big fan of David Bell, but this mess is more on ownership/front office. They traded for Gray and Bauer, then spent big free agent $$$ after the 2019 season, and had a solid roster for 2020, and we all know what happened.

    My issue is in the salary dump prior to 2021. Cutting Bradley, and paying the Angels to take Iglasias blew up a decent bullpen. As you mentioned, the upper minors are BARE. Look at that AAA roster...I see only a utility IF (Alfredo Rodriguez), and 3 marginal starting pitchers (Gutierrez - just called up but likely to end up in bullpen, Santillan - ceiling of #3 starter, and O'Brien). The AA roster only has Jose Barrero (formerly Garcia) among position players expected to make an impact at the MLB level. Yes, Greene and Lodolo look like future all-stars.

    I get it, 2020 was a financial disaster for MLB, but the Reds either needed to spend a little more to shore up their roster for a run at an up-for-grabs NL Central title in 2021, or they needed to sell assets that won't be here in 2023, and re-stock their farm system.

    The injuries have exposed their lack of depth, and the "we'll find a SS" experiment has failed.

    That said, the Reds are 1-10 in Luis Castillo's 11 starts (I know his BABIP is extremely high but that's another story), and they were never gonna contend if he doesn't perform. But put it this way, if they're 7-4 in those 11 games, which could have been expected based on the back of his baseball card, the team is 30-23 and everybody is giddy.

    I fear it's time for another rebuild. Hopefully, a quick one, with what DJ and Boddy are doing with the pitching pipeline.
  • DICKDICK Wealthy Alum
    The cheapness of ownership this season is certainly a huge factor.  They got rid of Bauer and Desclafini ( free agents, both having all star seasons), the closer Iglacius and a former MLB closer in Bradley, and the SS Freddy Galvis.  NONE of those guys was replaced so the staff had to really scramble.  The bullpen and SS have been the biggest failures.

    We have the two best hitters in baseball, and there have been several guys who have really stepped up this year, like Tyler Naquin, and Mahle, and Stevenson, and TJ Antone.  Barnhart is having his best year.  India may turn into a good everyday 2B.  Had the ownership just spent some money to fill the holes, we would be right there with the Cubs and Cards, but I would still be complaining about the way Bell manages.  Just keeping Galvis and Iglacius would have helped  great deal.
  • muhoopsjunkiemuhoopsjunkie Dodds God
    we would be right there with the Cubs and Cards,

    Don’t forget about The Brew Crew Dick.

    If we can get even a bit of hitting and stay healthy we’ll be right there….
  • DICKDICK Wealthy Alum
    edited June 5
    I think I should have ripped these guys sooner, lol.  All of a sudden, the team is looking pretty good.  The Brewers and Reds are making a move just when it was looking like the Cards and Cubs were the class of the division.  Bell even gave consistent roles to Antone and Sims this week and they came through.  That was the best the bullpen has looked this year.
  • ChrisW1980ChrisW1980 Off-Campus Slummer
    Just catching up on MHT today.  I like all the comments above.  

    I agree with Dick that I am not a fan of Bell's managerial style.  Another case in point-Sunday in St. Louis.  Although they won the game, leaving the pitcher in for 5 batters when he clearly didn't have it led to the Cardinals turning over the batting order and eventually tying the game with a 7 run inning.  I wasn't upset with the decision to take Miley out, but how he managed the pitching after that really bothered me.  I do have two positive comments on Bell-he has the players' backs and the players do play hard for him.

    Certainly Mowch and the Rock are right about the ownership putting this team in a bad position.  There were a lot of shortstops available in the off season, but the Reds passed on all of them.  Moving Suarez to short has had an impact on his hitting and also to some degree his fielding.  It looks like he might go back there when Moose comes back.  He seems much more comfortable at third base.

    I also agree with MU Hoops Junkie's comments about the Brewers.  They may not have a potent offense right now, but if their starters can give them 6 solid innings, their bullpen is lights out.  If that trend continues, they will be tough to beat going down the stretch.

  • Crew takes 2 of 3 but lose another player to injury.

    Good Luck to you guys until we see you again…..
  • ChrisW1980ChrisW1980 Off-Campus Slummer

    Crew takes 2 of 3 but lose another player to injury.

    Good Luck to you guys until we see you again…..

    Muhoopsjunkie, it looks like you all are the class of the division at this point.  The Brewers' schedule is pretty easy the next few weeks, and the Reds have to play in Milwaukee and then go out to San Diego.   If the Brewers get six good innings out of their starters, they have an excellent chance of winning games with their talented bullpen.

    Got to spend time with Dick at the game yesterday.  First time I had seen him since the pandemic hit last year.
  • DICKDICK Wealthy Alum
    And I am now 0-4 at Reds games, all blowout losses.  I will try again Saturday and Sunday.  The Rockies are a horrible road team, maybe we will win a couple.  
    Good to see you again Chris.  Even though I have seen 4 losses, getting together with my friends again has been great.

    Bell continues to use his bullpen with no thought of giving players a consistent role, and continues to fail.  I could not believe he brought his closer in with 2 outs in the 6th inning and 2 men on.  Sims previous 3 appearances had all been 9th inning saves.  Sims has good stuff but some control issues, he would be much better served to come in at the start of the inning.  What Bell has done to Sims is just a repeat of how he sabotaged a similar pitcher, Raisel Iglesias, last year.

    The only team which has had success with using their bullpen the way that Bell uses the Reds bullpen is Tampa Bay, but almost every reliever they use has come up through the Rays farm system and has learned to pitch with a constantly changing role.  None of the Reds pitchers seem to handle it well at all.  Reds have the worst bullpen in the majors statistically this season.

    The other big problem with the way the Reds are run is the owner, Bob Castellini, who destroyed the team's budget this season.  We can't get rid of the owner, but should work to get rid of our manager.


  • The_RockThe_Rock Havighurstite

    The recent improvements in the bullpen have led to an overall improvement in the team's fortunes.  Lots of good things happening right now, lets hope they can keep it going.
  • ChrisW1980ChrisW1980 Off-Campus Slummer
    Great to see Castillo getting back to the form we expect from him.  Also AG has corrected himself and is pitching much better out of the pen.  

    Dick and  I reversed our fortunes over the weekend.  After we both saw a loss against Milwaukee on Thursday, I got to see a big win against Colorado on Friday, and Dick had two good wins on Saturday and Sunday.


  • Cincykid3Cincykid3 Wealthy Alum
    Another 2-1 win by Reds today..sweep Brew Crew!
  • DICKDICK Wealthy Alum
    This has been a great stretch of baseball.  So much fun watching a team playing at such a high level.  Bell finally seems to be fitting relievers into traditional roles.   I was actually kind of glad that Moustakos had a setback in his rehab.  They were talking about moving Suarez back to short and Moose to 3B.  We already saw that and it did not work.  Farmer is clearly the best SS on this roster, he needs to play.
  • Professor_FateProfessor_Fate Wealthy Alum
    Best signed baseball ever

  • ChrisW1980ChrisW1980 Off-Campus Slummer
    Nice win last night.  Santillan pitched very well and Castellanos came up big.  Am going Sunday with Dick.  Very big homestand against some good teams.
  • Cincykid3Cincykid3 Wealthy Alum
    ..and the Reds sweep the Cubbies!
  • DICKDICK Wealthy Alum
    On a roll...  Today on MLB Dan Plesac said that Milwaukee will slow down and come back towards the pack and that the Reds are the only Central team which can hit and the one he thought would run the Brewers down.  After  the Brewers long winning streak, the Reds have picked up 2 games in two days and are back within 6.
  • moosemoose Wealthy Alum
    They won some more games against another team.
  • ChrisW1980ChrisW1980 Off-Campus Slummer
    The roll continues!  The rest of the July schedule is relatively difficult, but is considerably more favorable in August and September.  The Reds definitely can contend for a playoff spot if they keep up the good play.  Still have to address the bullpen.
  • BluesmanBluesman Wealthy Alum
    If the Reds can address relief pitching difficulties, and Winker picks up the pace a bit again, after the AS break, this team can definitely contend to win the Central. I'm still troubled by an everyday player hitting .170 but he does have power and drives in some runs. (Suarez). Getting some players back off the injured list will be a nice boost as well. Huge series they just finished against the Brewers. Really well done. 
  • DICKDICK Wealthy Alum
    Bluesman said:

    If the Reds can address relief pitching difficulties, and Winker picks up the pace a bit again, after the AS break, this team can definitely contend to win the Central. I'm still troubled by an everyday player hitting .170 but he does have power and drives in some runs. (Suarez). Getting some players back off the injured list will be a nice boost as well. Huge series they just finished against the Brewers. Really well done. 

    Since they have moved Suarez to where he actually belongs in the lineup ( not #1 or #3 where he has batted most of the year) he has been fairly productive.  At #6, he often comes up with men on and even though he is hitting around .170, his hits are mostly long singles or extra base hits and with good OBP guys ahead of him he is driving in quite a few runs.  He is up to 18 homers and 50 RBI at the All Star break and that is pretty good production. 

    The offense really has benefitted since India moved to leadoff.  I think he led the league in OBP over the last month and with the hitters behind them that has really helped the offense.  The more Bell just does the simple right things, the better the team seems to play.  Hope he doesn't get any more creative ideas like batting a .170 hitter and slow runner leadoff or using the same guy as the closer for two or 3 games, then popping him in during the 5th inning the next time.  Just use the guys in a consistent and reasonable way and these guys have responded.
  • 2xHawk2xHawk Senior Barfly
    Suarez's production hitting 6th is nearly double what it was hitting in any other spot in the order.  
    Only 20% of his plate appearances came hitting 1st or 3rd.  (1st 12%, 3rd, 8%, 4th 26%, 5th 18%, 6th 32%, 7th 3%)

    It's anecdotal but it seems like every time they are in a spot where they need a run India finds a way to get on base.
  • BluesmanBluesman Wealthy Alum
    2xHawk said:

    Suarez's production hitting 6th is nearly double what it was hitting in any other spot in the order.  

    Only 20% of his plate appearances came hitting 1st or 3rd.  (1st 12%, 3rd, 8%, 4th 26%, 5th 18%, 6th 32%, 7th 3%)

    It's anecdotal but it seems like every time they are in a spot where they need a run India finds a way to get on base.
    India has been terrific. A real catalyst. He needs to stay at 2B and stay at leadoff. 
  • TruckCrewTruckCrew Wealthy Alum
    Still banging, after all these years.
  • AORedHawk33AORedHawk33 Wealthy Alum
    How will Amir Garrett blow this lead?
  • 2xHawk2xHawk Senior Barfly
    August is when they need to make their move.

    2 vs Min
    4 vs Pit
    3 vs Atl
    3 vs Phi
    3 vs Chi
    7 vs Mia
    3 vs Mil

    If they can't destroy that schedule and pick up some major ground it's over.
  • TruckCrewTruckCrew Wealthy Alum
    TruckCrew said:

    Still banging, after all these years.

    I’m here for all the banging.

  • TruckCrewTruckCrew Wealthy Alum
    TruckCrew said:

    TruckCrew said:

    Still banging, after all these years.

    I’m here for all the banging.

    Singing AJR’s “Bang” a lot these days.
  • AORedHawk33AORedHawk33 Wealthy Alum
    Pretty wild that the Reds are contending with the type of year Geno is having.

    Brewers make a big move and the Padres get Scherzer. Reds bolster the bullpen. Should be a fun next couple weeks.
  • Cincykid3Cincykid3 Wealthy Alum
    What has Votto been eating for breakfast? He is on a home run tear!
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