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Best Recent Content

  • Shooting Treys Too Much? Nah, Defense Is The Problem.

    =>39.7% (basically 2 out of 5) of Miami's shots are treys.  It seems we are shooting treys way too much.  My eyes tell me it looks like too many contested treys too early in the shot clock.  But looking at the stats, that may not be the case or the real cause for concern.

    Note that the "traditional" benchmark of a very good shooting team is 50% from the field.  Only 18 of the 351 D1 schools are shooting 50% or better.  Gonzaga at 53.0% is the very best in the nation.  Miami is pretty good at 46.6% overall (ranked #116 of 351).

    Shooting 33.3% from trey is exactly equal to shooting 50% from the field from deuce shots (ex. 10/30 from trey = 30 points; 15/30 from deuce = 30 points).  

    Miami is shooting 35.8% from trey (rank #131 - just outside the top 3rd).  If took 100 shots, Miami would make 36 of them = 108 points. Miami is shooting 55.6% from deuce which is very good.  If took 100 shots, Miami would make 56 of them = 112 points
    The difference from trey and deuce if take 100 shots of each is only 4 points in favor of deuce.

    Per Kem Pomeroy, Miami "adjusted" offense is #114 best in the nation=>Top 3rd.

    So arguably, the mix of shooting from trey (2 of 5 shots) vs. deuce (3 of 5 shots) is probably about right from an analytics POV.


    Miami's real woes are on the other end.  

    Opponents are shooting 44.0% against Miami (#208).  Not very good shooting defense.  

    If throw out Midway (26.2%) and Wilberforce (33.3%), it looks REALLY bad vs. actual D1 opponents.  The 8 D1 opponents are shooting a blistering 55.8%.  To put that into perspective, SIU-Edwardsville has the worst (#351 out of all 351) shooting defense in the nation at 51.7%.

    Miami is in the bottom 3rd in steals per game (#240) at only 5.8 and just outside bottom 3rd in defensive rebounds per game (#219).  So the poor shooting defense is not being made up there.

    Per Kem Pomeroy, Miami "adjusted" defense is #240 best in the nation =>Bottom 3rd.

  • Rest of OOC predictions

    FWIW (not a whole lot since it's still fairly early in the season), here are the NET rankings and records (through 12/5) of the teams we've played so far:

    52. Butler (6-2)
    57. Xavier (6-3)
    93. Montana (5-2)
    155. Pepperdine (5-3)
    161. Wright St. (4-5)
    206. NDSU (2-7)
    270. Army (4-6)

    As you can see we're 0-4 against the best 4 we've faced, and 3-0 against the bottom 3. That Pepperdine loss still ticks me off, but they're now only one win away from equaling last season's win total.

    Here are the teams we've yet to play:

    123. @ NKU (8-2)
    194. vs. Evansville (4-4)
    230. vs. PFW (6-5)
    345. vs. SC St. (1-8)

    No reason we should do worse than 3-1 the rest of the way. Hopefully. Btw, Miami is 137. There are 353 D1 schools.
  • Worst College Football Stadiums #10 Yager

    I have mixed feelings about this ...when I was at Miami we had old Miami Field and with our perennial top 25 teams th place (all 14,900 seats and SRO) was packed and rocking most every game. That was fun but the away (student) stands were only 20 rows so it wasn’t exactly great for viewing the game. The home side only had 30 rows, all gray metal bleachers with wooden bleachers in the end zones.

    I was excited when they built Yager and for many years we had pretty good crowds there during our good seasons (of which we had quite a few). Usually we drew 18-20K at Parents weekend and HC, and usually had 12K-15K or so other games. During the magical 2003 season we even averaged 25K a game.

    They’ve made some nice improvements to Yager in recent years with the Cradle of Coaches plaza, the new student stands and having the IPF in the north end zone. The problem we have is twofold...years and years of mediocre results plus the MACtion weeknight games which have turned Yager into a “ghost town” on game nights. Our attendance for these weeknight games are so bad it wouldn’t even help to be in a stadium as small as old Miami Field.

    So, do I miss Miami Field..yeah I do but I think Yager could be just as fun if we could rebuild a winning tradition and get our fans back. As for MACtion, there are no answers for that in terms of killing attendance...if the games were only on thursday it wouldn’t be so bad but the Tuesday and Wednesday games are ridiculous. Anyway, the deal is done so there’s no turning back on that in the short term.
  • Shooting Treys Too Much? Nah, Defense Is The Problem.

    Let me ask this: If you shoot a lot of 3's and have 33% success and 50% success with 2's---an equal result---are you not better off shooting more 3's if you have a shorter team that may be more athletic and better able to rebound missed 3's than missed 2's on the theory that a missed 3 tends to have a longer rebound arc than a missed 2? Taller, bigger teams I'm assuming can rebound 2's more easily than missed 3's as they will have a tendency to be more inside oriented on offense and thereby better able to rebound missed 2's because of their positioning on the court...especially when they play a shorter perhaps more athletic team less able to board on the inside against the bigs.

    Just my theory.
    =>While you are right, long rebounds are easier for the offensive team to retain possession, longer rebounds favor the defensive team overall.  The longer rebounds lead to transition break baskets the other way for these reasons: 

    1.  The ball is already moving toward the defensive team's offensive bucket so the long rebound acts as an outlet pass that can be caught on a run with which to start a fast break.

    2.  The ball is more likely to be rebounded by the defensive team's fastest and best ballhandling players vs. slow posts.

    3.  There are less offensive players who can convert back to defense (slower post players are behind he ball) after the defensive team gets the long rebound which makes a more open court that favors the defensive team converting to offense.

    4.  Long rebounds mean a shorter court in which to go for the previous defensive team.

    With short rebounds grabbed by the defensive post players, the previous offensive team can get back and set up the half court defense.   
  • CB Tay Gowan

    Small tangent...


    Theoretical Group 5 playoff...Army a team (albeit minus starting QB) we should have beat....Fresno a team that played Minnesota no better than us...and another "Marshall" (Appalachian St) that passed us bye...

    With that said, how much better are these teams, maybe less UCF, than us...if we had competent playcalling?