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  • Coronavirus Thread

    =>This is NOT politics. This is just fact.

    Over and over again, the CDC has bungled the response to COVID-19. The agency is supposed to stand at the forefront of the federal government's defense against pandemics, but in the effort to track, identify, and slow the spread of the Rona, it has REPEATEDLY proven that it's not up to the task. 

    1) Unlike in S. Korea, the CDC would not allow private businesses to produce and sell Rona. Instead, the arrogance of these people decided they would be the only ground to develop and produce the tests. This greatly limited the supply of the tests. Add to it the rules the CDC placed on who could be tested (had to come into contact with someone who traveled from China, etc.) prevented those with obvious symptoms from getting tested. USA, unlike S. Korea, could not find and isolate those affected costing American lives and probably more importantly, wrecking the economy and pouring gasoline on the the national debt.

    2) The tests the CDC produced were too few.

    3) The tests the CDC produced were faulty. "The incompetence has really exceeded what anyone would expect with the C.D.C.," one Harvard epidemiologist told The New York Times in March.

    4) Some of the tests the CDC produced actually were covered with the Rona!!!

    5) CDC initially told us not to wear masks saying a) we needed to preserve them for medical personal and b) that if the rest of us would wear them we would start touching our faces too much. It wasn't until April that the CDC reversed course and started advocating masks.

    6) CDC says we can get sick touching contaminating surfaces. Then CDC changes their mind says we cannot get it easily by touching contaminated surfaces.

    7) Yesterday, it was reported the CDC has been conflating the results of two very different tests: viral tests, which determine if an individual is sick right now, and antibody tests, which are designed to reveal whether an individual has ever been exposed to the pathogen. This makes it impossible to determine the true spread of the virus at any given moment.

    8 ) Early in February, the agency misreported the results from mislabeled test samples taken from a group of individuals who were being quarantined at a San Diego military base after being evacuated from Wuhan, China, where the virus originated.  The CDC initially informed the group that, following testing, everyone was negative for the virus. But after the mislabeling was discovered, it turned out that one woman had tested positive—and had been released from the hospital to return to quarantine on the base. 

    9) CDC estimates on Rona desths, millions of US deaths, were grossly ovestated. The CDC stated that the fatality rate to be 3-5% (turns out not even close as CDC yesterday admitted it is less than 0.3% - 3 times more deadly than the flu) which caused frighted people to panic. People stopped going to doctors and hospitals as they were afraid of contact with the Rona people. A few weeks ago, the CDC admitted that as many people were killed because of fear of going to the hospital or doctor and having appointments cancelled as from the Rona. Hospitals reported 40% less heart attack cases. Cancer diagnoses are down. FEAR OF THE VIRUS KILLED AS MANY AS THE VIRUS ITSELF.

    10) The CDC was accused of racism against Asians by using Chinese imagery on a medical journal. I get this is bullshit political criticism, but to people who subscribe to identity politics this struck a cord.
    You are 100% correct.

    In addition, President Trump did not tell CDC to not use foreign tests. The CDC made that decision because they did not think they were accurate.

    The CDC also insisted that all early tests had to be sent to Atlanta for results. If you recall, when there was concern that there were Covid19 cases on Miami campus early and it took forever to get test results back. At the time I could not understand how it could take so long to get a test result back. It caused the postponement of one BB game. That was because of CDC not allowing any public health or private labs to be involved.

    Trump deferred to CDC early because they were supposed to be the "experts". He learned soon enough that was not true and brought in private labs to fix the testing mess caused by CDC.

    Stated again, this is not politics. These are facts.

    Good work on this Moll.
    EDDIEDevilGradDSnyder15
  • Coronavirus Thread

    =>For those who wish to check my work to make sure it is not political. Check these to start…I picked out sources not friendly to The Donald (starting with the “failing New York Times”).

    NY TIMES: Titled “The Lost Month: How a Failure to Test Blinded the U.S. to Test Blinded the U.S. to Covid-19 - Aggressive screening might have helped contain the coronavirus in the United States. But technical flaws, regulatory hurdles and lapses in leadership let it spread undetected for weeks.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/us/testing-coronavirus-pandemic.html

    THE NEW YORKER: Titled “What Went Wrong with Coronavirus Testing in the U.S.”

    https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/what-went-wrong-with-coronavirus-testing-in-the-us?fbclid=IwAR1mNidshswkTgTs3GPIq5P7UZGh48l27ixWOrLXRICqvXFei_OV_gP1uJ8

    THE WASHINGTON POST: Titled “11 to 100,000: What went wrong with coronavirus testing in the U.S.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/03/30/11-100000-what-went-wrong-with-coronavirus-testing-us/?fbclid=IwAR3SHuVMk8cU_a4n8MlaszH2G6Y-l8TiEjlurK0X7BWpqgukcA9cRYw7taQ

    WALL STREET JOURNAL: Titled “America Needed Coronavirus Tests. The Government Failed. - Decisions that limited testing for the pathogen blinded the U.S. to the outbreak’s scale. Here’s how it happened.”

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-washington-failed-to-build-a-robust-coronavirus-testing-system-11584552147?fbclid=IwAR2SoCjZ7-LZhMSxrsnmsNFLXruh9HNumLi_j2chBJxS7ExULd-Lz0kfL40

    BUSINESS INSIDER: Titled “The former director of the CDC is calling for an investigation into coronavirus testing failures: 'Something went wrong'”

    https://www.businessinsider.com/former-cdc-director-us-coronavirus-testing-errors-merit-investigation-2020-3

    THE MERCURY NEWS: Titled “CDC’s coronavirus testing failure is a national outrage - It’s imperative that the CDC make mass production of test kits its top priority”

    https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/03/14/editorial-testing/

    SEATTLE TIMES: Titled “‘Single point of failure’: The CDC’s past successes with an FDA process set the table for coronavirus testing debacle”

    https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/times-watchdog/single-point-of-failure-the-cdcs-past-successes-with-an-fda-process-set-the-table-for-coronavirus-testing-debacle/

    NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC: Titled “
    Why the U.S. coronavirus testing failures were inevitable”

    https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/03/why-united-states-coronavirus-testing-failures-were-inevitable/

    USA TODAY: Titled “The coronavirus test that wasn’t: How federal health officials misled state scientists and derailed the best chance at containment”

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/investigations/2020/03/27/coronavirus-test-officials-botched-rollout-derailed-containment/5080781002/

    POLITICO: Titled “How testing failures allowed coronavirus to sweep the U.S.”

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/06/coronavirus-testing-failure-123166

    THE ATLANTIC: Titled “The 4 Key Reasons the U.S. Is So Behind on Coronavirus Testing - Bureaucracy, equipment shortages, an unwillingness to share, and failed leadership doomed the American response to COVID-19.


    https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/why-coronavirus-testing-us-so-delayed/607954/

    BOSTON HERALD: Titled “Federal mismanagement left U.S. unprepared for coronavirus”

    https://www.bostonherald.com/2020/03/31/federal-mismanagement-left-u-s-unprepared-for-coronavirus/

    VICE: Titled “How the CDC Botched Basic Science in Its Attempt to Make a Coronavirus Test”

    https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/y3mkpx/how-the-cdc-botched-basic-science-in-its-attempt-to-make-a-coronavirus-test

    REUTERS: Titled “Special Report: How Korea trounced U.S. in race to test people for coronavirus”

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-testing-specialrep/special-report-how-korea-trounced-u-s-in-race-to-test-people-for-coronavirus-idUSKBN2153BW

    THE ATLANTIC:

    ‘How Could the CDC Make That Mistake?’

    The government’s disease-fighting agency is conflating viral and antibody tests, compromising a few crucial metrics that governors depend on to reopen their economies. Pennsylvania, Georgia, Texas, and other states are doing the same.

    ‘How Could the CDC Make That Mistake?’
    https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/05/cdc-and-states-are-misreporting-covid-19-test-data-pennsylvania-georgia-texas/611935/
    EDDIE
  • Coronavirus Thread

    =>This is NOT politics. This is just fact.

    Over and over again, the CDC has bungled the response to COVID-19. The agency is supposed to stand at the forefront of the federal government's defense against pandemics, but in the effort to track, identify, and slow the spread of the Rona, it has REPEATEDLY proven that it's not up to the task. 

    1) Unlike in S. Korea, the CDC would not allow private businesses to produce and sell Rona. Instead, the arrogance of these people decided they would be the only ground to develop and produce the tests. This greatly limited the supply of the tests. Add to it the rules the CDC placed on who could be tested (had to come into contact with someone who traveled from China, etc.) prevented those with obvious symptoms from getting tested. USA, unlike S. Korea, could not find and isolate those affected costing American lives and probably more importantly, wrecking the economy and pouring gasoline on the the national debt.

    2) The tests the CDC produced were too few.

    3) The tests the CDC produced were faulty. "The incompetence has really exceeded what anyone would expect with the C.D.C.," one Harvard epidemiologist told The New York Times in March.

    4) Some of the tests the CDC produced actually were covered with the Rona!!!

    5) CDC initially told us not to wear masks saying a) we needed to preserve them for medical personnel and b) that if the rest of us would wear them we would start touching our faces too much. It wasn't until April that the CDC reversed course and started advocating masks.

    6) CDC says we can get sick touching contaminating surfaces. Then CDC changes their mind says we cannot get it easily by touching contaminated surfaces.

    7) Yesterday, it was reported the CDC has been conflating the results of two very different tests: viral tests, which determine if an individual is sick right now, and antibody tests, which are designed to reveal whether an individual has ever been exposed to the pathogen. This makes it impossible to determine the true spread of the virus at any given moment.

    8 ) Early in February, the agency misreported the results from mislabeled test samples taken from a group of individuals who were being quarantined at a San Diego military base after being evacuated from Wuhan, China, where the virus originated.  The CDC initially informed the group that, following testing, everyone was negative for the virus. But after the mislabeling was discovered, it turned out that one woman had tested positive—and had been released from the hospital to return to quarantine on the base. 

    9) CDC estimates on Rona desths, millions of US deaths, were grossly ovestated. The CDC stated that the fatality rate to be 3-5% (turns out not even close as CDC yesterday admitted it is less than 0.3% - 3 times more deadly than the flu) which caused frighted people to panic. People stopped going to doctors and hospitals as they were afraid of contact with the Rona people. A few weeks ago, the CDC admitted that as many people were killed because of fear of going to the hospital or doctor and having appointments cancelled as from the Rona. Hospitals reported 40% less heart attack cases. Cancer diagnoses are down. FEAR OF THE VIRUS KILLED AS MANY AS THE VIRUS ITSELF.

    10) The CDC was accused of racism against Asians by using Chinese imagery on a medical journal. I get this is bullshit political criticism, but to people who subscribe to identity politics this struck a cord.
    EDDIElaxdaddy
  • Coronavirus Thread

    =>The CDC has just been a comedy of errors through this whole thing. I see the reputation of the CDC hurt by Rona only slightly less than the ATF's rep was hurt after WACO.

    Pretty unfair comment.  This is a new disease, we learn as we go.  It is somewhat similar to some previous diseases, so originally the CDC used information based on those previous epidemics and pandemics.  One of the early discoveries was that the virus could live for a long time on metal surfaces ( which was discovered by testing on abandoned cruise ships after the passengers left) which was different than earlier diseases.  So that was assumed to be a new way of transmission, only now after finally having some real data to analyze it turns out that it is actually a low risk of transmission.  No way for the CDC to know that in advance.

    The biggest criticism of the CDC has been that their original test was contaminated and did not work.  However, the CDC was bullied by the Trump administration to come up with an American made test so that we would not be using or purchasing tests being successfully used in  foreign countries.  They tried to hurry it because it was needed weeks before they were even asked and it was ineffective which put testing way behind when they finally got effective tests. USA has never really gotten the testing and data that is actually needed to stop the disease transmission.

    As for models, original models were based on previous diseases like the Spanish Flu.  There were predictions being made about how many cases and deaths would happen if we did nothing and if we used social distancing and frequent washing of hands and face, which were very different than models of how many would die if we did nothing.  About 4 weeks ago when the entire country was locked down the Washington model predicted only 60,000 deaths by the way we were progressing.  However, since then every state has opened up, almost every one prior the CDC guidance, and now we are hitting 100,000 deaths after only 3 months.

    Predictions and guidance are only as good as the data available...Certainly the president is more concerned about his reelection possibilities than anything else and he is pushing and bullying and threatening to speed up the opening of the economy at the cost of slowing/containing the virus.  He believes his reelection hinges on turning the economy around before November and the increased deaths are worth it to him.  Hard to blame the CDC when the data they have had to work with is inadequate and they are blocked from really taking charge by the administration, which is working hard to undermine their guidance.
    Professor_FateDevilGradD_Daymollauttskin66redhawk112xHawk
  • Thank You

    And bump this up to the top where it belongs. 

    On a side note, if you haven't ever gone to Arlington Cemetery and Tomb of the Unknown Soldier, go because it puts things into perspective much more clearly than a "start of barbecue season" holiday ever does. 
    skin66Renmancodave67
  • Coronavirus Thread

    Available data analyzed by the WHO suggests that COVID-19 has a mortality rate that is more than triple that for seasonal influenza.  Early analysis for New York suggests that the mortality rate for COVID-19 may be five times higher than for influenza in New York state.  Additionally, as folks here are probably aware, there is a reasonably effective vaccine for seasonal influenza compared to, as yet, no deployable vaccine or widely scalable antivirals to even treat COVID-19.  


    Correct. But to answer DSnyder, the death rate for Ebola is close to 50%, while off the top of my head, the flu is 0.1%. What will be interesting is looking at how quarantine impacts the infectiousness. There are some interesting studies around the Spanish flu in 1919 and how being outside would've contained it sooner because it didn't handle heat or UV light well. Quarantining was absolutely the right move, but I wonder how society can create a proper balance of quarantine with safe outdoor activities.

    I've had the opportunity to work on some of this for work and there's a lot of data I wish we could collect but we can't.
    Quarantining is absolutely the right move. However, a quarantine locks down the sick. It does not involve locking down the healthy. 

    Which two segments of our society were separated and locked in more than any other before this began? Those in nursing homes and those in prisons. The majority of cases in Ohio are from these two sources. Two of the largest outbreaks in the nation are in Ohio prisons. Over 70% of deaths in Ohio in nursing homes. This proves it is contagious but we totally wrecked the economy and still ended with this result.

    In the meantime, we hear almost nothing about any cases with essential workers who have been out there the entire time. Why were the grocery stores, gas stations, drug stores, etc able to continue to operate? Shouldn't they have all have been forced to close because of lack of employees due to infections? 

    There is much we don't know. We do know we have 39 million unemployed.
    MowchDSnyder15
  • Will Miami follow Notre Dame's plan to reopen for Fall?

    You read this article from a few days ago in the Miami Student?

    ‘It’s pretty selfish’: Returning students aren’t social distancing, or wearing masks in liquor stores - Click here or Eddie's coming to your home to sing and dance the Universe Song from Monty Python's "Meaning of Life" and then steal your liver with the assistance of John Cleese
    EDDIE
  • Coronavirus Thread

    But when can I play Pickleball again other than in my driveway?
    =>If you play pickleball people will die.
    Yes but that’s because his aim is bad.
    skin66
  • Coronavirus Thread

    =>GREAT NEWS!!!!!!!

    Georgia defies predictions of coronavirus resurgence

    "On April 24, as more than 25,000 Americans continued to test positive for COVID-19 each day, Georgia became the first U.S. state to initiate the fraught process known as “reopening.”

    First it allowed hair salons, gyms, barber shops, tattoo parlors and bowling alleys to resume operations. Dine-in restaurants and movie theaters followed a few days later.

    Today much of the state is open for business, under guidelines including a 6-foot social distancing rule.

    The move was controversial, to say the least. In the New York Times, Keren Landman, an Atlanta-based physician, epidemiologist and journalist, accused Republican Gov. Brian Kemp of potentially “setting us up for a punishing new wave of infections” by volunteering Georgia as “the nation’s canary in this particularly terrifying coal mine.”


    Even President Trump said he “disagree[d] strongly with [Kemp’s] decision.”

    But now 26 days have passed since the state started to reopen — and that punishing new wave of infections has not materialized. In fact, according to a database maintained by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Georgia’s rolling seven-day average of new daily cases — an important metric that helps to balance out daily fluctuations in reporting — has fallen for three weeks in a row.

    Those figures are undisputed ***

    For the seven-day period ending on May 4, Georgia’s daily average stood at 746 cases.

    By May 11, the average had fallen 12.6 percent to 652 daily cases.

    By May 18, it had dropped to 612 cases, a further decline of 6.1 percent.

    At the same time, Georgia’s seven-day average of COVID-19 hospitalizations fell from 1,432 on May 4, to 1,239 on May 11, to 1,049 on May 18 — a three-week decline of 26.7 percent.

    The numbers reflect a slowing in transmission. According to the AJC database, Rt — an epidemiological statistic that represents transmissibility, or the number of people a sick person infects at a particular point in an epidemic — fell from 1.0 on May 4, to 0.94 on May 11, to 0.88 on May 16. An Rt below 1 indicates that each person infects, on average, less than one other person."

    https://news.yahoo.com/as-more-states-reopen-georgia-defies-predictions-of-coronavirus-resurgence-whats-the-lesson-for-the-rest-of-the-country-164734815.html
    Part of this may be people not confident in going out, still limiting their consumption.
    EDDIEDICK
  • Coronavirus Thread

    This article says 70% of deaths in Ohio are from nursing homes and those places have been in total lockdown since the beginning

    https://www.cleveland.com/coronavirus/2020/05/at-least-1247-ohio-nursing-home-patients-have-died-with-coronavirus-70-of-total-covid-19-deaths-state-reports.html

    Dr Acton gave a nursing home update about a week ago where she read numbers where she said 22% of the deaths were in nursing home and she was called on it in the presser. How do you make public policy when you cant understand your own data?
    mollautt